Friday, April 10, 2009

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The Gross Domestic Product measures the value of economic activity within a country. Strictly defined, GDP is the sum of the market values, or prices, of all final goods and services produced in an economy during a period of time. There are, however, three important distinctions within this seemingly simple definition:

1. GDP is a number that expresses the worth of the output of a country in local currency.
2. GDP tries to capture all final goods and services as long as they are produced within the country, thereby assuring that the final monetary value of everything that is created in a country is represented in the GDP.
3. GDP is calculated for a specific period of time, usually a year or a quarter of a year.

Taken together, these three aspects of GNP calculation provide a standard basis for the comparison of GDP across both time and distinct national economies.

Computing GDP

Now that we have an idea of what GDP is, let's go over how to compute it. We know that in an economy, GDP is the monetary value of all final goods and services produced. For example, let's say Country B only produces bananas and backrubs.





Figure 1.1: Goods and Services Produced in Country B
In year 1 they produce 5 bananas that are worth $1 each and 5 backrubs that are worth $6 each. The GDP for the country in this year equals (quantity of bananas X price of bananas) + (quantity of backrubs X price of backrubs) or (5 X $1) + (5 X $6) = $35. As more goods and services are produced, the equation lengthens. In general, GDP = (quantity of A X price of A) + (quantity of B X price of B) + (quantity of whatever X price of whatever) for every good and service produced within the country.

In the real world, the market values of many goods and services must be calculated to determine GDP. While the total output of GDP is important, the breakdown of this output into the large structures of the economy can often be just as important. In general, macroeconomists use a standard set of categories to breakdown an economy into its major constituent parts; in these instances, GDP is the sum of consumer spending, investment, government purchases, and net exports, as represented by the equation:
Y = C + I + G + NX
Because in this equation Y captures every segment of the national economy, Y represents both GDP and the national income. This because when money changes hands, it is expenditure for one party and income for the other, and Y, capturing all these values, thus represents the net of the entire economy.

Let's briefly examine each of the components of GDP.

* Consumer spending, C, is the sum of expenditures by households on durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. Examples include clothing, food, and health care.
* Investment, I, is the sum of expenditures on capital equipment, inventories, and structures. Examples include machinery, unsold products, and housing.
* Government spending, G, is the sum of expenditures by all government bodies on goods and services. Examples include naval ships and salaries to government employees.
* Net exports, NX, equals the difference between spending on domestic goods by foreigners and spending on foreign goods by domestic residents. In other words, net exports describes the difference between exports and imports.


GDP vs. GNP

GDP is just one way of measuring the total output of an economy. Gross National Product, or GNP, is another method. GDP, as said earlier, is the sum value of all goods and services produced within a country. GNP narrows this definition a bit: it is the sum value of all goods and services produced by permanent residents of a country regardless of their location. The important distinction between GDP and GNP rests on differences in counting production by foreigners in a country and by nationals outside of a country. For the GDP of a particular country, production by foreigners within that country is counted and production by nationals outside of that country is not counted. For GNP, production by foreigners within a particular country is not counted and production by nationals outside of that country is counted. Thus, while GDP is the value of goods and services produced within a country, GNP is the value of goods and services produced by citizens of a country.

For example, in Country B, represented in , bananas are produced by nationals and backrubs are produced by foreigners. Using figure 1, GDP for Country B in year 1 is (5 X $1) + (5 X $6) = $35. GNP for country B is (5 X $1) = $5, since the $30 from backrubs is added to the GNP of the foreigners' country of origin.

The distinction between GDP and GNP is theoretically important, but not often practically consequential. Since the majority of production within a country is by nationals within that country, GDP and GNP are usually very close together. In general, macroeconomists rely on GDP as the measure of a country's total output.

Growth Rate of GDP

GDP is an excellent index with which to compare the economy at two points in time. That comparison can then be used formulate the growth rate of total output within a nation.

In order to calculate the GDP growth rate, subtract 1 from the value received by dividing the GDP for the first year by the GDP for the second year.
GDP growth rate = [(GDP1)/(GDP2] - 1
For example, using , in year 1 Country B produced 5 bananas worth $1 each and 5 backrubs worth $6 each. In year 2 Country B produced 10 bananas worth $1 each and 7 backrubs worth $6 each. In this case the GDP growth rate from year 1 to year 2 would be:
[(10 X $1) + (7 X $6)] / [(5 X $1) + (5 X $6)] - 1 = 49%

There is an obvious problem with this method of computing growth in total output: both increases in the price of goods produced and increases in the quantity of goods produced lead to increases in GDP. From the GDP growth rate it is therefore difficult to determine if it is the amount of output that is changing or if it is the price of output undergoing change.

This limitation means that an increase in GDP does not necessarily imply that an economy is growing. If, for example, Country B produced in one year 5 bananas each worth $1 and 5 backrubs each worth $6, then the GDP would be $35. If in the next year the price of bananas jumps to $2 and the quantities produced remain the same, then the GDP of Country B would be $40. While the market value of the goods and services produced by Country B increased, the amount of goods and services produced did not. This problem can make comparison of GDP from one year to the next difficult as changes in GDP are not necessarily due to economic growth.

Real GDP vs. Nominal GDP

In order to deal with the ambiguity inherent in the growth rate of GDP, macroeconomists have created two different types of GDP, nominal GDP and real GDP.

* Nominal GDP is the sum value of all produced goods and services at current prices. This is the GDP that is explained in the sections above. Nominal GDP is more useful than real GDP when comparing sheer output, rather than the value of output, over time.
* Real GDP is the sum value of all produced goods and services at constant prices. The prices used in the computation of real GDP are gleaned from a specified base year. By keeping the prices constant in the computation of real GDP, it is possible to compare the economic growth from one year to the next in terms of production of goods and services rather than the market value of these goods and services. In this way, real GDP frees year-to-year comparisons of output from the effects of changes in the price level.


The first step to calculating real GDP is choosing a base year. For example, to calculate the real GDP for in year 3 using year 1 as the base year, use the GDP equation with year 3 quantities and year 1 prices. In this case, real GDP is (10 X $1) + (9 X $6) = $64. For comparison, the nominal GDP in year 3 is (10 X $2) + (9 X $6) = $74. Because the price of bananas increased from year 1 to year 3, the nominal GDP increased more than the real GDP over this time period.

GDP Deflator

When comparing GDP between years, nominal GDP and real GDP capture different elements of the change. Nominal GDP captures both changes in quantity and changes in prices. Real GDP, on the other hand, captures only changes in quantity and is insensitive to the price level. Because of this difference, after computing nominal GDP and real GDP a third useful statistic can be computed. The GDP deflator is the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP for a given year minus 1. In effect, the GDP deflator illustrates how much of the change in the GDP from a base year is reliant on changes in the price level.

For example, let's calculate, using , the GDP deflator for Country B in year 3, using year 1 as the base year. In order to find the GDP deflator, we first must determine both nominal GDP and real GDP in year 3.
Nominal GDP in year 3 = (10 X $2) + (9 X $6) = $74
Real GDP in year 3 (with year 1 as base year) = (10 X $1) + (9 X $6) = $64
The ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP is ( $74 / $64 ) - 1 = 16%.
This means that the price level rose 16% from year 1, the base year, to year 3, the comparison year.

Rearranging the terms in the equation for the GDP deflator allows for the calculation of nominal GDP by multiplying real GDP and the GDP deflator. This equation demonstrates the unique information shown by each of these measures of output. Real GDP captures changes in quantities. The GDP deflator captures changes in the price level. Nominal GDP captures both changes in prices and changes in quantities. By using nominal GDP, real GDP, and the GDP deflator you can look at a change in GDP and break it down into its component change in price level and change in quantities produced.

GDP Per Capita

GDP is the single most useful number when describing the size and growth of a country's economy. An important thing to consider, though, is how GDP is connected with standard of living. After all, to the citizens of a country, the economy itself is less important than the standard of living that it provides.

GDP per capita, the GDP divided by the size of the population, gives the amount of GDP that each individual gets, on average, and thereby provides an excellent measure of standard of living within an economy. Because GDP is equal to national income, the value of GDP per capita is therefore the income of a representative individual. This number is connected directly to standard of living. In general, the higher GDP per capita in a country, the higher the standard of living.

GDP per capita is a more useful measure than GDP for determining standard of living because of differences in population across countries. If a country has a large GDP and a very large population, each person in the country may have a low income and thus may live in poor conditions. On the other hand, a country may have a moderate GDP but a very small population and thus a high individual income. Using the GDP per capita measure to compare standard of living across countries avoids the problem of division of GDP among the inhabitants of a country.

Problems




Figure K.1: Goods and Services Produced in Country C

Problem 1.1: Figure K.1: Goods and Services Produced in Country C
Calculate the nominal GDP for Country C in year 2.

Solution for Problem 1.1
([(15 X $1) + (12 X $2)] = $39

Problem 1.2: Using , calculate the real GDP for Country C in year 2, using year 1 as the base year.

Solution for Problem 1.2
(15 X $0.50) + (12 X $1) = $19.50

Problem 1.3:
Using , calculate the GNP for Country C in year 3 if candy is produced by foreigners.

Solution for Problem 1.3
(20 X $1.50) = $30

Problem 1.4: Using , calculate the GDP deflator for year 2 using year 1 as the base year.

Solution for Problem 1.4
GDP deflator = [(nominal GDP) / (real GDP)] – 1
Nominal GDP for year 2 = ($1 X 15) + ($2 X 12) = $39
Real GDP for year 2 = ($.50 X 15) + ($1 X 12) = $19.50

GDP deflator = (39 / 19.50) –1 = 1 = %100



Introduction and Summary

Macroeconomists

use a variety of different observational means in their effort to study and explain how the economy as a whole functions and changes over time. One such method relies on personal experience. It is relatively simple to notice that your company is producing more than it has in the past or that a paycheck does not go as far as it used to. Yet while personal observations do provide information about the economy, that information can often be localized rather than universal, and may not accurately reflect the state of the economy as a whole.

In order to move beyond the limitations inherent in personal experiences, macroeconomists begin by systematically measuring the basic elements of the economy in order to derive standard and comprehensive statistics. This data provides information about the entire economy rather than simply about a single household or firm. Two of the most fundamental elements macroeconomists study are the total output of an economy (GDP) and the cost of living within an economy (CPI). Gross domestic product, or GDP, is an indicator of economic performance that measures the market value of goods and services produced within a country. This measurement is of great importance to consumers since it also equals the total income within an economy. The consumer price index, or CPI, is a cost of living indicator; it measures the total cost of goods and services purchased by a typical consumer within a country. This index allows economists and consumers to see just how much purchasing power a dollar yields, and to compare that power between different years and eras. Together, GDP and CPI show how much income exists within an economy and how much this income can purchase. The concepts of GDP and CPI open the door to a scientific understanding of the functioning of the economy on a large, or macro, level. These are the most basic tools of measurement used by macroeconomists, policy makers, and consumers to understand and describe the economy. In fact, GDP and CPI are published and discussed regularly in the media. Through understanding the concepts of GDP and CPI, the world of macroeconomics begins to unfold.

Terms and Formulas

Terms

Base year - The year from which constant prices or quantities are taken in calculations of such indices as real GDP and CPI.
Bureau of Labor Statistics - The government organization responsible for regularly gathering data about the economic status of the population.
Consumer price index (CPI) - A cost of living index that measures the total cost of goods and services purchased by a typical consumer within a country.
Fixed basket - A set group of goods and services whose quantities do not change over time. This is used, for instance, in the calculation of the CPI.
Gross domestic product (GDP) - The sum of the market values of all final goods and services produced within a particular country during a period of time.
Gross domestic product deflator (GDP deflator) - The ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP for a given year minus 1. The GDP deflator shows how much of the change in the GDP from a base year is reliant on changes in the price level.
Gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) - GDP divided by the number of people in the population. This measure describes what portion of the GDP an average individual gets.
Gross national product (GNP) - An alternative measure of economic activity to GDP. GNP is the sum of the market values of all goods and services produced by the citizens of a country regardless of their physical location.
Nominal gross domestic product (nominal GDP) - The sum value of goods and services produced in a country and valued at current prices.
Real gross domestic product (real GDP) - The sum value of goods and services produced in a country and valued at constant prices, calibrated from some base year. Real GDP frees year-to-year comparisons of output from the effects of changes in the price level.

Formulae

Gross Domestic Product GDP = [(quantity of A X price of A) + (quantity of B X price of B) + ... + (quantity of N X price of N)] for every good and service produced within the country

GDP = (national income) = Y = (C + I + G + NX)
GDP Growth Rate GDP growth rate = [(GDP for year N) / (GDP for year N-1)] - 1
GDP Deflator GDP deflator = [(nominal GDP) / (real GDP)] - 1
GDP Per Capita GDP per capita = (GDP) / (population)




Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Introduction To Economics

Economics,

study of how human beings allocate scarce resources to produce various commodities and how those commodities are distributed for consumption among the people in society (see distribution). The essence of economics lies in the fact that resources are scarce, or at least limited, and that not all human needs and desires can be met. How to distribute these resources in the most efficient and equitable way is a principal concern of economists. The field of economics has undergone a remarkable expansion in the 20th cent. as the world economy has grown increasingly large and complex. Today, economists are employed in large numbers in private industry, government, and higher education (see economic planning). Many subjects, such as political science and sociology, which were once regarded as part of the study of economics, have today become separate disciplines, although the study of any one generally implies a working knowledge of the others.

Ancient and Medieval Periods

The first attempts to analyze economic problems appear in the writings of the ancient Greeks. Plato recognized the economic basis of social life and in his Republic organized a model society on the basis of a careful division of labor. Aristotle, too, attributed great importance to economic security as the basis for social and political health and saw the owner of a middle-sized plot of land as the ideal citizen. Roman writers such as Cicero, Vergil, and Varro gave significant advice about the economics of agriculture. The medieval period was marked by the disruption of the flourishing commerce of the ancient world, and its economic life was dominated by feudalism. Economic writings of the age focus on the just price for goods and criticism of usury.

Mercantilism, the Physiocrats, and Adam Smith

In the transition to modern times (16th-18th cent.), European overseas expansion led to the growth of commerce and the economic policies of mercantilism, a system that inspired a substantial body of literature on the subject of economic nationalism. In the late 17th and the 18th cents., protest against the governmental regulation characteristic of mercantilism was voiced, especially by the physiocrats. That group advocated laissez-faire, arguing that business should follow freely the "natural laws" of economics without government interference. They regarded agriculture as the sole productive economic activity and encouraged the improvement of cultivation. Because they considered land to be the sole source of wealth, they urged the adoption of a tax on land as the only economically justifiable tax.

In the 18th cent. important work in economics was done by the Scottish philosopher David Hume. His analysis of the natural advantages that some nations enjoy in the cultivation of certain products and his observations on the flow of commerce became the basis for the theory of international trade. The most important work of the 18th cent., however, was Adam Smith's An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776), which is considered by many to be the first complete treatise on economics. Smith identified self-interest as the basic economic force and, through his analysis of the division of labor and his comprehensive study of the development of economic institutions in the West, established economics as a major area of study. John Millar, a follower of Smith, incorporated and developed these ideas into a highly sophisticated economic interpretation of history. Smith's theories, especially his advocacy of free trade, played an important part in the Industrial Revolution then taking place in Britain.

Malthus, Ricardo, and Mill

One of the most influential writers of the 19th cent. was Thomas Malthus, whose predictions that population growth would always tend to outstrip advances in the means of subsistence earned for economics the title "the dismal science." The most important economist to follow Smith was David Ricardo. His analysis of rent long remained the classic account, while his theory of labor value was later adopted by socialists as well as classical economists. Ricardo's "iron law of wages" supplemented Malthus's pessimistic thesis by asserting that wages tend to stabilize at the subsistence level. John Stuart Mill was a follower of Ricardo and contributed to the study of international trade as well as to the study of the economics of industrial expansion. Among critics of free trade outside Britain were the German Friedrich List and the American Henry C. Carey.

The Socialists and Marx

The early exponents of socialism, especially in France, attacked the idea of the necessity of private property and competition and were interested in revamping the economic and social order. Among those were C. H. Saint-Simon, Robert Owen, Charles Fourier, and Louis Blanc. In Germany the historical school arose under Wilhelm Roscher, Bruno Hildebrand, and Karl Knies, who doubted the existence of universal economic laws and emphasized the particular development of economic institutions in individual nations.

The greatest challenge to classical economics came from the followers of Karl Marx. Marx's critique of capitalism was moral and social, as well as economic; but in the exposition of the workings of the capitalist system he and his followers developed important insights into the structural weaknesses of the market economy, especially the recurrence of economic crises (see depression).

Further Evolution of Classical Economics

At the same time as Marx was writing, the principles of classical economics were being reformulated and refined—it was at this time that the term "economics" replaced the term "political economy," which had been used through the mid-19th cent. The most important refinement was the doctrine of marginal utility, which asserts that the value of an item is determined by the need for it and by its relative scarcity or abundance at any given time—not by any intrinsic or inherent worth. The leading theorists in the development of the concept were William Stanley Jevons of Britain, Leon Walras of France, and Carl Menger of Austria. In the United States, John Bates Clark was notable in the development of marginal utility theory, forming his own hypothesis regarding the distribution of wealth. Classical economics reached its fullest expression at the end of the 19th cent. in the work of Alfred Marshall. Marshall used mathematics to perfect the application of classical techniques and introduced important modifications to the notions of competition, marginal utility, and rent.

Keynes

Swedish economist Knut Wicksell was influential in the development of monetary theory, which concerned itself with overall price levels and interest rates in an economy. His work foreshadowed the most important modification of classical concepts of the free economy, exemplified in the work of John Maynard Keynes. In his General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936), Keynes opened up a whole new range of investigation into business cycles. A principal result of Keynes's teaching has been reflected in governmental attempts to control the business cycle by putting money directly into the economy; the "pump-priming" technique, often accompanied by an unbalanced budget, is now a part of most capitalist economic systems.

Since World War II

After World War II, emphasis was placed on the analysis of economic growth and development. Western economists notable for their contributions to the economics of growth and development include Gunnar Myrdal of Sweden, Sir Arthur Lewis of Great Britain, and Joseph Schumpeter of the United States.

In recent years, economic theory has been broadly separated into two major fields: macroeconomics, which studies entire economic systems; and microeconomics, which observes the workings of the market on an individual or group within an economic system. The use of complex mathematical techniques and statistical data in economic forecasting has resulted in a new branch of economics known as econometrics. British economist Arthur Pigou was influential in the development of welfare economics, an important branch of the discipline that suggested that an economic system was better if even one person's satisfaction was increased while no one else's was decreased.

In the 1980s supply-side economics (which sees economic growth as essential for improving the material health of society) was used as a policy tool by the Reagan administration. Another modern economic school that was influential in the Reagan years is monetarism; monetarists, such as Milton Friedman, believe that the money supply exerts a dominant influence on the economy. In the 1990s, Nobel laureate Gary Becker extended the scope of macroeconomic analysis by applying economic reasoning to human behavior, including the use of sociology, anthropology, and other disciplines. Game theory has also been appied to economics (see games, theory of).